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インドネシアはアジアでの最高の投資機会 (Finance Asia)
JUGEMテーマ:アジア
JUGEMテーマ:時事ニュース
JUGEMテーマ:経済全般

200910月にFinance Asiaに掲載された記事です。

 

先月Economist誌に掲載されたインドネシア特集をこのブログでも掲載しました。インドネシアは様々な分野で改善をしているものの、未だ印象があまりよくなくなかなか上昇気流に乗れない、といった内容でした。市場でのインドネシアの評価はこの記事が指摘するように上がってきているようです。株式市場のインデックスも上昇していますし、債券のスプレッドも縮小してきています。シンガポールやマレーシアの銀行も積極的にインドネシアに進出している話は良く耳にします。人口に裏打ちされた内需と豊富な天然資源は今後この国が伸びていくという予測を裏付けるには十分だと思います。


 

[抄訳]

インドネシアが工業品の輸出部門の発展に失敗したことは幸運な副作用を生んでいる。隣国が成長の行き詰まりに苦しむ中、インドネシアは国内消費と天然資源に対する世界中からの需要に支えられて好調な経済状態を維持している。汚職を取り締まる動きとコーポレート・ガバナンスの改善の兆候が現れてきていることで投資家のポートフォーリオの中での再評価が迫られている。Bricの仲間入りをし、Briciと呼ぶことが誇張ではないとも言われている。ジャカルタの株式指数はリーマンの破綻直後の水準から1000ポイント以上上がり今年9月には2468に達している。過去の水準や株価収益率から考えた割安感から来年の終わりには2700に達するとクレディ・スイスは指摘する。市場の上昇は、通貨の価値が上昇することを反映して海外からの資金流入に支えられている。この動きはさらに増加するものと考えられている。ムーディーズは、世界的な不況に対して抵抗力が大きいことを理由に格付けを2段階引き上げBa2とした。債券市場でもインドネシアの信用の上昇は最小化されていて、6ヶ月前には米国債に対して850ベーシス・ポイントであったスプレッドが9月の終わりには315ベーシス・ポイントにまで縮まっている。国内投資家も株式市場では重要な役割を果たすようになってきている。

 

資本市場は明らかに効率よく回るようになってきており、信頼は回復され債券や株式の新規発行も期待されていて、投資銀行に対して大きな手数料をもたらしそうだ。投資適格以下の債券発行も成功しており、アジアの高利回り債券市場が誕生したとするアナリストも存在する。株式市場でも国有企業やセメント会社、大農園会社等が調達を考えている。

 

コモディティの価格の急激な下落や企業不正による市場の乱高下のリスクは残る。これを避けるために投資を分散させることをUBSは勧めている。格上げの期待もあり、国外の資金への開放の程度は世界中でも高いといわれる。インドネシアは多くの投資家や銀行のアンテナにかかっていないが、インドネシアと隣国の違いがしっかりと認識されていないのも事実だ。

 

 

[本文]

 

Bankers say Indonesia is Asia's best investment opportunity

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIID=159410 

 

Indonesia has become an attractive destination for portfolio investors.

 

Indonesia's failure to develop its manufacturing export sector has resulted in a lucky side effect. While its Asian neighbours have suffered severe contractions in growth, the regional giant's dependence on domestic consumption and long-term global demand for its natural resources has maintained its economic engine in working order. And anti-corruption measures and signs of improved corporate governance are forcing a reassessment of its place in investor's portfolios.

"It is no exaggeration to say that Indonesia has joined the Bric countries [Brazil, Russia, India and China] as an attractive destination for investment and its potential for growth and higher living standards. Increasingly, I now talk about the "Brici" countries," said Sarah-Jane Wagg, president director of UBS Securities Indonesia.

The Jakarta Composite Index is up more than 1,000 points since the beginning of the year, reaching 2,468 on September 24, which is 122% higher than the 1,111 nadir it slumped to on October 28, 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Yet, as Arief Wana, head of research for Indonesia at Credit Suisse pointed out: "The stock market is still 15% lower than 1997 despite the surge this year; and trading with a current 2009 estimated price-earnings ratio of 15.2 times and an expected 2010 multiple of 13 times based on forecast earnings of 17%, the market is the third cheapest in the region after Thailand and the Philippines our price-to-book to return-on-equity matrix." Wana predicts that the index will reach 2,700 by the end of next year. He especially likes stocks linked to consumption, such as United Tractors, BRI (microfinance), Astra and Indofood, and also companies that will be benefit from construction, such as cement makers.

The surge in the market has largely been driven by foreign portfolio inflows, reflected in the strength of the currency. There was $2 billion of inflows reported in the first quarter this year, and this will undoubtedly have increased in the second and third quarters as investor sentiment globally has improved.

Portfolio outflows in the fourth quarter 2008 alone amounted to $4.5 billion. Indonesia's rupiah touched Rp9,575 against the US dollar on September 17, having spiked above 12,500 in late November. On the previous day, Moody's Investor Services upgraded Indonesia's credit rating to Ba2, two levels below investment grade, pointing to the economy's "resilience to the global recession".

International bond investors had already recognised the country's improving credentials: Indonesia raised $3 billion with a 10-year US dollar bond priced at 850 basis points over US treasury yields six months ago, and by the end of September the yield spread had tightened to just 315bp.

However, "domestic investors are also more significant players in the stock market compared with five or six years ago", noted UBS's Wagg. Pension funds and mutual funds are growing, life insurance is booming and etrading has opened up the market to greater retail participation. Promotion of local company listings in Jakarta rather than in other jurisdictions should also enhance the depth and size of the stock market. 

New issues

Clearly the capital markets are working more effectively, confidence is returning and expectations are high that new debt and equity deals will start paying good fees to investment bankers. 

For instance, Deutsche Bank is currently looking at five debt raising issues and two prospective IPOs. Activity will mostly centre on the resources sector, as well as subordinated debt issuance by banks, said Suresh Narang, chief country officer and head of global markets at Deutsche Bank. The international bond market is already open to Indonesian borrowers. For example, state-owned electricity company (PLN) successfully raised $750 million with a 10-year US dollar bond offering that was 11 times subscribed, attracting orders from more than 300 investors and immediately traded at a two percentage point premium.

A couple of sub-investment grade corporate borrowers, tyre-maker Gajah Tungall and retailer Matahari, completed successful bond exchanges during the summer, and the latter even raised additional cash, which led analysts to declare the Asian high-yield market open.

Other new issues are expected during the fourth quarter, particularly by companies in the natural resources and energy sector.

In equity capital markets, state-owned construction company, Perusahaan Pembangunan, is planning to raise $140 million, while cement makers, including Semen Gresik, are keen to raise capacity so are likely to tap the equity market, said Citi's Indonesia country business manager Tigor Siahaan.

In the plantation sector, most companies are in good shape as crude palm oil prices have moved back up to $700 a tonne (compared with costs of around $300 a tonne), and many of the big players continue to expand, said Siahaan. Earlier this year, Golden Agri-Resources, the world's second biggest oil palm company, announced its intention to raise more equity capital.

But worries persist

However, there are risks, such as a sudden fall in commodity prices, or market volatility caused by disruptive family-led corporate actions - for instance a repeat of the Bakrie Group-Bumi Resources saga that froze the markets last autumn, when the highly indebted Bakrie desperately clung on to its controlling stake in Bumi despite mortgaging its shares against loans. But perhaps the greatest constraint is that some foreign investors still believe that Indonesia is simply inherently risky.

To play down that reputation for volatility and mitigate a legacy marred by political upheaval and corporate shenanigans, Wagg is relentless in promoting wider coverage of Indonesia, including highlighting the country's opportunities to UBS management.

In a paper published on August 4, Martin Hohensee, Deutsche Bank's Asia strategist argued that Indonesia's credit rating should be upgraded, and pointed out that an "overlay of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development survey on regulatory openness with a UN survey on attractiveness as a foreign direct investment destination" showed that "only four countries in the world...are...both more open and more attractive a destination [than Indonesia]: Germany, the US, the UK, and Brazil".

"Unfortunately, Indonesia remains below the radar of many banks and investors, who also fail to sufficiently differentiate it from other countries in the region," said UBS's Wagg.

 

| Merlion | 10:50 | comments(0) | trackbacks(0) | pookmark |
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